The Big Trainer debate

Is the trainer market really on it’s knees, or are the big brands simply losing their grip?

One thing is for sure….people haven’t suddenly stopped wearing shoes.There aren’t streets full of people walking around barefoot, so the demand is still there.The question is, where are the customers shopping?

In this article we will take a look at what’s happened to the big four, why some brands have lost their way, how others have quietly stolen market share, and who we think will be leading the pack in 2027.

Nike – Let’s start with the elephant in the room, the brand is in freefall. In full year of 2025 the brand was down a whopping 44%, this is unheralded in the history of the brand. They literally invented trainer culture. But let’s be honest it feels like Nike has spent the last 5/6 years raiding their own attic. Jordan, Dunk, Air Force 1, Cortez. Time and time again they have reinvented these old models but the consumer these days is far too clued in. The brand whose ethos was built on invention & trend setting went to sleep and stopped listening to their consumer. In simple terms they became boring and in this industry boredom is fatal.

If I was sitting in their HQ tomorrow I wouldn’t be asking how many more Dunks & Air Force 1’s we can sell. I’d be asking one simple question….

“What is the next shoe that people can’t live without” And until they fix this answer all the other brands are going to continue biting at their heels taking more market share.

Adidas – In 2023 Adidas made the brave move by hiring Puma’s CEO Bjorn Gulden to try and save the failing brand.

At that point they too were in freefall with little idea as to how to tackle this crisis. Bjorn decided to get the basics fixed and delved into their heritage and brought back styles like Samba & Gazelle from their Terrace ranges.

Over the next 12 months the brand went from strength to strength especially in the female fashion sector, it was literally an overnight success. After the huge losses on Yeezy the year prior who would of thought their fortunes could turn so quickly.

But the brand made the most basic of errors, rather than slowly build heat they flooded the marketplace. Before we knew it every third person owned a pair. Then her sister, the neighbour, the girl making the coffee, the lad delivering your Chinese. At some point Adidas confused demand with unlimited demand. As it stands we are starting to see they don’t seem to now what’s next – Have we gone full circle?

Puma – The huge German brand that each year you think they might just reach their true potential but always seem to fall short. Not since the Basket Heart styles in 2017 has Puma seen any real volume in the fashion world. In 2025 they brought back the Speedcat which was regarded as they style that might change their fortunes. It worked in certain fashion circles but as a whole it never reached the heights required to change the direction of the brand.

New Balance – Now here is the clever one, when all the other brands were chasing volume New Balance chased desirability.The 550 exploded the Teddy Santis made in the USA collection made people who’d never even considered NB stand up and take Notice.

Then came the 9060, then the 1906R, hit after hit after hit….

But here is what they got right. They didn’t flood the market, retailers couldn’t get enough & inturn customers couldn’t get enough. It is retail psychology 101….

“If everybody has it then nobody really wants it” Ironically the smallest player of the top 4 brands understood luxury more than some of the biggest brands on the planet….

So while some of the Giants were sleeping – some oldies re-invented themselves and some newbies have come knocking. Suddenly the market has got even more tough for the likes of Nike.

Asics – On the back of the running fashion trend have gone from strength to strength
On – The Swiss Running brand had an astonishing few years but now has quickly fallen off
Solomon – The outdoor Trail brand has done an amazing job in the last 24 months and we don’t see any sign of Slowing as we move into 2027
Converse – On the back of the Americana drive in fashion they have seen huge growth in the European sector
Autry – The USA brand is slowly growing market share, another to watch in 2027

So what is actually happening – Here is my theory….The younger consumer has lost loyalty which for so long sat with Nike. Suddenly they are addicted to newness and to conform is uncool & standing out from the crowd is more relevant.

Shoes also has seen an upsurge in styles like loafers & workwear brands like Redwing. Birkenstocks are now an ever present in the 18-25 year olds wardrobe again stealing market share from the trainer.

So it’s an interesting time for the trainer in the fashion world. But what we do know is that Nike is too big & too powerful to not fight back. So let’s see what the American brand does in the next 12 months.

“ One thing I do know is that people will continue to buy trainers. The only question is whose logo will be on the side of them, only time will tell”